Assets Universe

The strategy invests across five distinct asset classes: Equities, Gold, Commodities, Treasuries and Bitcoin.

Each asset class is selected for its structural role in the portfolio, not for short-term return expectations. Inclusion criteria emphasize liquidity, capacity, and differentiated behavior across different market regimes. The goal is not to hold the best-performing asset, but to hold a mix of assets that behave differently when it matters most.

This is a deliberately concentrated universe. We do not chase diversification for its own sake. Every holding must justify its presence across multiple economic environments.

Asymmetric Risk Management

The strategy employs an asymmetric risk control framework designed to adapt exposure as market conditions deteriorate, without relying on a single, blunt “risk-off” switch.

Rather than treating all assets identically, risk is managed according to each asset’s structural characteristics.

  • Equities and commodities are managed on a long/short basis, allowing exposure to adjust dynamically as trends weaken or reverse.

  • Gold and bitcoin, which exhibit positive long-term skew, employ a risk-off mechanism that reduces exposure during adverse conditions without taking short positions.

  • Treasuries are managed with a similar risk-off approach, reflecting the unfavorable carry of short positions.

Asset selection signals are derived from price behavior across multiple time horizons and evaluated within their prevailing market and macro economic context. Rather than acting on signals in isolation, conviction is scaled dynamically based on price persistence, market regime, and macro economic environment. This allows the strategy to remain engaged when signals are reliable and to step back when market behaves unstable.

Risk-Based Portfolio Construction

At the portfolio level, position sizing is driven by risk contribution rather than capital allocation. Positions are initially scaled inversely to downside volatility so that no single asset dominates portfolio risk during adverse conditions.

This scaling is then adjusted for correlation. Rather than equalizing risk per asset, the framework equalizes risk across correlated exposures, reducing concentration when assets tend to experience losses simultaneously.

  • Downside correlations are evaluated conditionally, focusing on periods where the higher utility asset within a pair is under stress

  • Correlations are calculated for each macro regime

  • Both are combined to ensures diversification when it matters most, during drawdowns, rather than during stable market environments

Drawdown Control

The objective of this framework is not to predict market tops or capture every rally. It is to reduce exposure before drawdowns compound, particularly during periods of stress.

By scaling conviction down or exiting positions when conditions deteriorate, the strategy prioritizes capital preservation over full participation in late-stage trends. Over full cycles, avoiding large losses is the primary driver of long-term compounding.